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Oct 28, 2020

Sporting goods are a rare bright spot in Covid times

Sporting goods are one of the rare winners from the Covid-19 outbreak amid a decimated discretionary retail industry: we expect U.S. retail sales of sporting goods to hit an all-time high of USD48bn in 2020. 

 

Oct 27, 2020

The transatlantic spread: Pricing in inflation (un)certainty

The transatlantic yield spread between the U.S. and the Eurozone narrowed by over 80bp until mid-September but has clearly re-widened lately. The prevailing view among market participants seems to be that this divergence reflects a divergence in economic momentum as the Eurozone is heading for a double dip.

 

Oct 21, 2020

U.S., Europe or China: Who is the global climate’s superhero?

Covid-19 will upend the old pecking order in the global economy – and in climate policy. China is not only leading the economic recovery post-Covid-19 but also seems to be shifting from laggard to leader in climate policy, with President Xi Jinping’s pledge for net-zero emissions by 2060. 

 

Oct 20, 2020

A hard Brexit could cost the EU EUR33bn in annual exports

The odds for a no-deal Brexit at the end of 2020 have considerably increased to 45%. While we do still expect a last-minute compromise, given the social, political and economic consequences of such an outcome on top of the continuing Covid-19 crisis in the UK and across Europe in general, a Hard Brexit could cost as much as EUR33bn in annual exports to the EU.

 

Oct 19, 2020

China: Winning export markets share despite the Covid-19 crisis

China’s exporters have been gaining market share since they exited the Covid-19 crisis. Out of the top 20 exporters in the world, China’s total market share now stands at c.25%, compared to an average of c.20% over 2017-19.

 

Oct 15, 2020

Eurozone: Double dip and structural weaknesses

As Covid19-related restrictions are retightened, we expect key European economies to contract again in the final quarter of 2020. We forecast GDP to drop by -1.3% q/q in Spain, -1.1% q/q in France and–1.0% q/q in the Netherlands. 

 

Oct 14, 2020

EU climate policy goes global

A CBAM is a game-changer for global climate policy. The need for financing the pandemic recovery package has jump-started the process of introducing an EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

 

Oct 12, 2020

Big Tech and the S&P 500: Look beneath the surface

 

Complementary indicators point to increasing concentration in the S&P 500 market rally: A five-year-long outperformance of the (capitalization-weighted) S&P 500 relative to the equally-weighted S&P 500 and a six-month-long divergence between the (capitalization-weighted) S&P 500 and the ratio of rising-to-falling stocks as well as a fall in entropy, a better metrics of concentration within the S&P 500

 

Oct 09, 2020

The global aerospace industry faces a steep cost of contagion

Rising Covid-19 infections will hold back the recovery of passenger demand in H2 2020. This has dealt a blow to new plane deliveries, especially for wide-bodied jets.

 

 

Oct 08, 2020

EUR100bn equity gap for French and Italian SMEs

On top of emergency liquidity measures provided to European SMEs to fight Covid-19, we estimate that Italian SMEs need EUR70bn of recapitalization, French SMEs EUR30bn and German SMEs EUR3bn - after excluding pre-existing zombies.

 

604 releases in total