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President Biden's inauguration: 100 days to save America?

On 20 January, Joe Biden takes over as the 46th president of the US with the promise of a USD1.9trn stimulus package and a plan to distribute 100 million vaccine doses in his first 100 days.

Allianz Risk Barometer 2021

• 10th Allianz survey: Business interruption, Pandemic outbreak and Cyber incidents are the top three business risks for 2021 – all strongly interlinked.

The world is moving East, fast

The Covid-19 crisis could accelerate the shifting global balance to-wards Asia. We computed the world’s economic center of gravity (WECG) and found that it has been moving eastwards towards Asia since 2002. By 2030, we forecast the WECG could be located around the confluence of China, India and Pakistan. In comparison, it was located in the Atlantic Ocean until 2007.

Germany: The economic growth roller coaster continues in 2021

The German economy contracted by -5.0% in 2020, suggesting that economic activity held up relatively well in the final quarter of the year despite the second lockdown. But the economic roller coaster ride looks set to continue: The German economy is in for a sharp growth setback in early 2021. 

Change? What Change? Saving Behaviors Post Covid-19

Covid-19 lockdowns changed saving behaviors: Not only did people save more, for the lack of consumption opportunities, they also saved differently, channeling more money into equities and investment funds.

Brexiting in times of Covid-19

We have a (partial) Brexit deal! As expected, the EU and the UK reached a very last-minute compromise on Brexit, just seven days before the EU exit day. The deal is more advantageous than other FTAs as it offers zero tariffs for goods.

'Dear Santa': Our economists' wish list for 2021

As 2020 draws to a close and we release our updated forecasts , our economists were caught daydreaming of a world where their boldest wishes would come true. 

2021-2022: Vaccine economics

The Covid-19 vaccine will supercharge global growth in 2021, but short-term headwinds, and a complete recovery only by 2022, will create transition risks.

US & EMU Corporate Spreads

Two recent events have cleared the way for a second wave of spread tightening, leading them closer to their pre-pandemic levels. 1) the resolution of the US presidential elections and 2) the positive news around the vaccines timeline and availability. 

Growing pains: The future of incomes for lockdown Gen-Z

The youth labor market is highly sensitive to economic cycles, with young people more likely to be in precarious employment than any other age group. After the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC), it took years to recover across Europe and it could take even longer to recover from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic as it will hinder human capital accumulation, punishing young workers further and widening already present intergenerational inequalities.