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Sep 07, 2023

A slow landing for China

The Chinese consumer is at the heart of public support measures but rebuilding confidence will take time. 

Sep 05, 2023

Is diversification dead?

2022 flipped the script on the traditional 60/40 portfolio split, with inflation and growth dynamics switching the traditionally negative correlation between equities and bonds into a positive one. 

Aug 04, 2023

Global boiling: Heatwave may have cost 0.6pp of GDP

An initial ‘back of the envelope’ calculation suggests that the recent heatwave across the United States, Southern Europe, and China may have cost 0.6pp of GDP in 2023. The cost ranges from 0.1pp for France to 1.3pp of GDP for China. 

Aug 01, 2023

Critical raw materials – Is Europe ready to go back to the future?

The future will be powered by metals, but fenced in by iron curtains. Metals and critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt and nickel are crucial for the green transition, used for everything from electric vehicles to wind turbines. 

Jul 28, 2023

US & Eurozone growth defying gravity

The US economy stepped up the pace in Q2 2023, with GDP growing above-trend at +2.4% annualized, driven by soaring business investment. Q3 data continue to show positive signs, including a sharp rise in consumer sentiment and continued solid performance in the labor market. 

Jul 27, 2023

Playing with a squared ball: the financial literacy gender gap

There is a persistent financial literacy gender gap. Out of the nine questions we asked to assess the level of financial literacy, the mean number of correct responses from women was 3.7 (median 4), while that of men was 4.5 (median 5).

Jul 21, 2023

US immaculate disinflation: How much should we thank the Fed for?

Half of the decline in US inflation since last year is the making of the Fed. The fall of inflation to 3% in June has cheered markets by strengthening the argument that the US economy can achieve a soft landing, avoiding a recession and normalizing inflation. 

Jul 20, 2023

Back to the beach: Tourism rebound in Southern Europe?

Will surging travel prices wash out Southern Europe’s all-important summer season? Beach holidays are the top choice for leisure trips (30.3%) but 41% of European travelers expect to spend more than EUR1,500 on their holidays this summer, up from 33% last year. 

Jul 13, 2023

A new Eurozone doom loop?

Over the last four years, Eurozone sovereign exposures to the corporate sector have exceeded 20% of GDP. While support measures have helped keep vulnerable firms afloat, there has been considerable economic scarring – and the risk of higher corporate defaults continues to rise.

Jul 12, 2023

European Retail: a cocktail of lower spending and tighter funding

One year on since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, retail sales in Europe have proven more resilient than expected despite record-high inflation and poor consumer confidence.

604 releases in total