With buffers waning, most vulnerable corporates and sectors have been caught between a rock and hard place in 2023, with hospitality, transportation and wholesale/retail on the front line.
The African continent is showing much greater resilience than expected, given the set of macro-financial conditions. Economic resilience and adaptability to prolonged political violence, events leading to business interruption and challenging financing conditions will set the stage for an acceleration in 2024-2025 as many growth enablers persist.
A trough in global economic activity is expected at the turn of the year followed by below-trend growth in 2024-25. Consumer demand will remain soft amid negative wealth effects and increasing precautionary savings.
2022 was an annus horribilis for savers. Asset prices fell across the board in the „everything slump“ scenario. The result was a dismal -2.7% decline in private households’ global financial assets, the strongest drop since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008.
The ClimateTech industry is set to grow threefold, reaching a market size of USD650bn by 2030. However, Europe’s position in this emerging market cannot be taken for granted – without further efforts, Europe is likely to lose the race against the US and China.
A toxic policy mix in 2024? The Eurozone is heading into a challenging 2024 with both fiscal and monetary policy turning restrictive as real rates turn more limiting and governments tighten their belts.
Germany is the only major economy that looks set to contract in 2023, with headwinds such as slowing demand for its exports , lopsided global growth in services over goods, the industry slowdown in the US and China and an inventory correction.
Global GDP growth is projected to decelerate to +2.5% in 2023, as low as in 2019. Advanced economies will likely dodge a full recession but will experience low growth in 2023 and 2024.
