Allianz Research

Allianz Global Wealth Report 2023:
The next chapter

2022 was a turning point, both politically and economically. Whether it also marked a turning point for financial assets will certainly only become clear in retrospect. 

Weed out the laggards: Sustainability as a credit filter

Financial fundamentals remain the primary drivers of credit risk. Across more than 7,400 companies and 280,000 firm-year observations, profitability (ROA), leverage and size collectively explain the vast majority of variation in credit risk. 

Matryoshka market: Nested convictions in equities

Geopolitical resolution is the master assumption. Equity markets are pricing a framework agreement by September, consistent with the prediction market consensus and the pronounced kink in VIX term structure at Q3. 

Too hot to grow: The economic costs of extreme heat

Extreme heat is emerging as a structural economic risk, with Europe highly exposed. Heat stress events have multiplied sevenfold since the 1980s while the average death toll per event has risen fivefold.