Allianz Global Wealth Report 2026

Low for longer oil prices: Who is at risk?

The negative growth impact is increasing with the time oil prices will remain below 45 USD/bbl In particular, oil-exporting economies are likely to suffer with Ecuador and Colombia expected to lose more than -1pp of real GDP growth for a fall in oil prices of 10 USD/bbl. Mexico, Russia and the UAE are expected to lose more than -0.5pp. The impact from lower oil prices for Saudi Arabia remains more contained, at -0.2pp for oil prices falling by 10 USD/bbl given that the positive impact on growth from higher export volumes and inventories will largely counterbalance negative effects from reduced incomes and some fiscal austerity.

Women live longer – but men catch up

Women have a significantly longer life expectancy than men – but the lead has shrunk from 6.8 years to 4.8 years in the last forty years. Lifestyle changes are responsible for this: while men are becoming more health-conscious and avoid risks, women seem to be moving in the opposite direction. This development can be observed in all rich countries: The men are catching up.

Covid-19 to cost USD320Bn of trade losses every quarter

After the U.S.-China trade feud slashed global trade growth to its slowest pace since 2009 last year (+1.2% in volume terms), we expect the Covid-19 outbreak to act as a major trade barrier in 2020.