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The ongoing oil-price shock shouldn’t prove structural, with flows likely to normalize in 2027. But several pressure points are pulling oil and gas prices in different directions and the balance will decide where prices go next.
Equity captures the upside of the AI build-out, while credit absorbs the loss if it fails – yet creditors are compensated with under 1% p.a. on 5-year bonds and around 2% on 10-year.
A challenging but still holding macroeconomic backdrop. Global growth is expected to ease to +2.5% in 2026 before rebounding to +2.9% in 2027, propped up significantly by AI investment, which alone contributes roughly a third of US growth.