Allianz Global Wealth Report 2026

Pensions: Corona reveals need for further pension reforms in Germany

The Corona pandemic renders the German government’s optimistic economic assumptions on which the forecast of the pension contribution rates and the benefit level until 2025 are based, obsolete. Due to short-time work and rising unemployment looms a shortfall of at least EUR 8bn. With pension cuts prohibited by law, an increase of the contribution rate can only be avoided by depleting the sustainability reserve faster than planned.

Global trade: COVID-19 losses equivalent to a return of 1994 tariffs

Global trade could remain below 90% of its pre-crisis level even after lockdowns are lifted and only recover gradually in H2 2020. We estimate that lockdowns and the uncoordinated deconfinement could cost merchandise trade USD2.4tn, the same as if all countries hiked their tariffs to 17%,  i.e. close to levels last seen in 1994.

Emerging Markets: Capital outflows bottomed out but beware of the weak spots

Capital outflows from Emerging Markets (EMs) bottomed out in March but could increase again should renewed trade tensions continue. Total portfolio outflows from EMs moderated to an estimated -USD18bn in April from the record outflow of -USD88bn in March.