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Against the background of rising interest rates and a worsening economic outlook, still favorable credit dynamics in the Eurozone are unlikely to last for much longer. After a year of stabilizing lending standards, banks have become significantly more risk averse.
US discretionary retail sales (durable goods, apparel, entertainment and leisure goods) peaked in Q3 2022, mostly driven by prices. In the same period, retailers had an estimated USD54bn in additional inventories vs 2021.
The Covid-19 crisis and, more recently, the war in Ukraine have led to some re-thinking of financial globalization. In particular, large emerging countries are showing growing discontent against the Western USD-centered framework.