Allianz Research

Allianz Global Wealth Report 2023:
The next chapter

2022 was a turning point, both politically and economically. Whether it also marked a turning point for financial assets will certainly only become clear in retrospect. 

Emerging markets in a fragmented world: From geography to resilience - the 4Rs framework

The Iran war marked the first major oil shock that did not trigger a broad emerging markets sell-off. Markets repriced countries based on strengths and weaknesses rather than the traditional EM–DM divide. 

Weed out the laggards: Sustainability as a credit filter

Financial fundamentals remain the primary drivers of credit risk. Across more than 7,400 companies and 280,000 firm-year observations, profitability (ROA), leverage and size collectively explain the vast majority of variation in credit risk. 

Matryoshka market: Nested convictions in equities

Geopolitical resolution is the master assumption. Equity markets are pricing a framework agreement by September, consistent with the prediction market consensus and the pronounced kink in VIX term structure at Q3.