Why Your Next Car Won’t Drive Itself – But Your Taxi Might

Autonomous mobility — vehicles that can drive themselves without human involvement — has cleared its proof-of-concept phase. The harder contest, scaling that technology in a way that is safe, trusted and genuinely useful, is only just beginning.

It seems now that the car you will drive in 2035 will be less of a revolution than an advanced evolution of the one you have today. According to the World Economic Forum, it will be safer, more connected and more assisted — but still recognizably a car built around a human driver. The Forum projects that only 4% of new personal vehicles sold in 2035 will have Level 4 capabilities, the threshold at which a car can drive independently within a defined domain. That is a clear recalibration from the more optimistic forecasts of the previous decade, when some industry voices, like Elon Musk and Ford, predicted that fully autonomous cars would be commonplace by the early 2020s. Reality has proved more complex.

The frontier of autonomous mobility, it turns out, is the fleet. Unlike private cars, which must be ready to handle any situation anywhere, fleets can operate within specific geofenced areas where conditions are more predictable. This makes it easier to test, deploy, and refine the technology.

“Autonomous mobility is not just one thing,” says Stefan Sellschopp, an autonomous vehicle expert at Allianz Partners. “It includes robotaxis, robo-shuttles, ride-pooling, logistics vehicles, and public transport solutions — different flavors with different business models, but from a risk perspective, they all sit in the same autonomous vehicle ecosystem.”

Sellschopp also notes that the debate around autonomy is often too narrow. “Autonomy is often discussed as if it simply meant private cars driving themselves, when in reality some of the most important early use cases are in public transport, logistics, and ride-hailing,” he explains.

Hamburg has emerged as one of Europe’s most important urban laboratories for autonomous mobility. MOIA, a Volkswagen Group subsidiary, operates a pilot robotaxi service of 280 vehicles across a 270 km² service area, serving hundreds of thousands of passengers every month. This trial is run alongside public transit, ride-pooling, and city planning initiatives, demonstrating how autonomous systems can integrate into broader urban mobility networks.

HOCHBAHN, Hamburg's public transport operator, is separately testing autonomous shuttles through services such as ALIKE and ahoi. Allianz has been directly involved in research and risk assessment linked to Hamburg's autonomous vehicle test fields, working with operators, regulators, and insurers to address critical questions: How safe are these systems in live traffic? How should responsibility be assigned? And how can public trust be built?

By integrating autonomous systems into public transport and urban planning, Hamburg is showing how technology, safety, and trust can come together to create a sustainable mobility solution. It is a model that other cities can look to as they navigate the complexities of autonomous mobility.