Carbon farming: A transition path for agriculture & forestry
To comply with the 1.5°C goal, the EU needs total investments of EUR185bn and an annual investment gap of EUR8.3bn needs to be filled. Projected investment until 2030 ranges around EUR240mn per year, but it needs to be increased by another EUR30mn per year to achieve the 1.5°C ambition. This is still low compared to the 2030-50 period. After 2030, investments need to see a massive increase to EUR760mn to meet the basic ambition of the EU’s Ff55 proposal. Assessing the necessary increase to enhance the ambition to 1.5°C in the 2030-50 period suggests that an average of EUR9.1bn per year should be invested; this gives us the whopping shortfall of EUR8.3bn per year.
Looking ahead, a new results-based approach proposed with carbon farming is expected to take off in the next decade, boosting the carbon sink and incentivizing land managers. The EU plans to propose a regulatory framework for the certification of carbon removal by the end of 2022, which could essentially lead to the creation of an EU-regulated carbon market and further incentivize land managers to adopt more resilient practices. The objective is for each land manager to have access to verified emission and removal data by 2028, with the potential for carbon farming initiatives to remove at least 42 Mt of CO2-eq by 2030 (contributing to the overall net removal target of 310 Mt CO2-eq).
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