The Covid-19 crisis continues to represent an immediate threat to both individual safety and businesses, reflecting why pandemic outbreak has rocketed 15 positions up to #2 in the rankings at the expense of other risks. Prior to 2021, it had never finished higher than #16 in 10 years of the Allianz Risk Barometer, a clearly underestimated risk. However, in 2021, it’s the number one risk in 16 countries and among the three biggest risks across all continents and in 35 out of the 38 countries which qualify for a top 10 risks analysis. Japan, South Korea and Ghana are the only exceptions.
Market developments (#4 with 19%) also climbs up the Allianz Risk Barometer 2021, reflecting the risk of rising insolvency rates following the pandemic. According to Euler Hermes, the bulk of insolvencies will come in 2021. The trade credit insurer’s global insolvency index is expected to hit a record high for bankruptcies, up 35% by the end of 2021, with top increases expected in the US, Brazil, China and core European countries. Further, Covid-19 will likely spark a period of innovation and market disruption, accelerating the adoption of technology, hastening the demise of incumbents and traditional sectors and giving rise to new competitors. Other risers include Macroeconomic developments (#8 with 13%) and Political risks and violence (#10 with 11%) which are, in large part, a consequence of the coronavirus outbreak, too. Fallers in this year’s survey include Changes in legislation and regulation (#5 with 19%), Natural catastrophes (#6 with 17%), Fire/explosion (#7 with 16%), and Climate change (#9 with 13%), all clearly superseded by pandemic concerns.
