Then, Covid-19 hit the world economy like a meteorite. The sudden stop of economic activity around the globe will batter insurance demand, too: Global premium income is expected to shrink by 3.8% in 2020, with life insurance probably hit more than P&C business with growth rates of -4.4% and -2.9%, respectively. Thus, the impact of the Corona pandemic is going to be three times stronger than that of the global financial crisis, when global premium income decreased by 1.0%. Compared to the pre-Covid-19 growth trend, the pandemic will shave around EUR 360bn from the global premium pool (Life: EUR 250bn, P&C: EUR 110bn).
2020 is lost to the virus, no doubt about it. More interesting is the question about what comes after Covid-19. Basically, we see three trends, already in place before, that will gather steam in the coming years: Digitalization of the business model, the pivot to Asia and the growing significance of ESG-factors. While Asian players lead in technology, European peers are ahead with ESG. But dominance of the global insurance industry will be decided in Asia – Asian households emerge as the consumer of last resort, driving global insurance demand.