The structure of European mortgage markets

Mortgage credit markets in Europe will stay sharply in focus in 2008 for two reasons. One is the much-debated issue of how far the US subprime debacle could spill over into Europe. On the other hand, publication by the European Commission shortly before Christmas of the White Paper on the Integration of EU Mortgage Credit Markets rekindled discussion on the appropriate regulation of EU mortgage markets. In the light of this it is worth taking another closer look at the structure of the European mortgage credit market.

Housing for the elderly: Status quo and market potential

The issue of demographic change is a major concern in general, not least for the German housing market. The fact that the proportion of households with persons over 65 is expected to rise from its current level of almost 30 % to over 40 % by 2035 is clear evidence of this. This trend is, all too often, regarded – erroneously – as a threat. It cannot be denied that population figures, especially in the rural areas of Germany, will wane substantially. But this will not necessarily be true of the urban agglomerations. It is, furthermore, a mistake that the issue of an ageing population should frequently be associated with infirmity and senility. On the contrary, today’s generation of “new oldies” is healthier, in a better material position and more active than any generation before.

German residential property: signs of a pick-up in prices

Prices for residential property in Germany have been flat for 15 years. Indeed, in per capita income terms, the cost of buying one’s own home is at present more favorable than in 1991. This makes Germany an odd exception compared with its European neighbors where house prices have literally rocketed – in the UK for example, with price increases of more than 100%. However, these “ideal” market conditions for domestic property-seekers are coming to an end, with several factors pointing to a sustained pickup in property prices.

Demography and property market

Rising life expectancy and low birth rates have characterized demographic trends in Germany for over 30 years. The upshot: an increase in the average age and a drop in the population. What are the implications of a 10 % drop in the population for the residential property market?

Residential property extremely stable in terms of both value and returns

For most property owners owning a house serves the basic need to have a „roof over one’s head“, coupled with the feeling of independence. However, looking at it from a capital market perspective is also worthwhile these days. With the state pension gradually being trimmed down to a basic pension, real estate is growing in importance as an element of private retirement provision. Unlike in other industrial countries, German property prices are not climbing, but both value and returns enjoy great stability.

Property market: Upheaval on the residential property market: a trend analysis to 2010

According to Allianz Group economists, a number of megatrends will shape the property market in the coming years: socio-economic and cultural influences will have a major impact on price formation for residential property. Changes in the political backdrop will continue to have a substantial impact on the promotion of residential construction and property financing. These changes include the expected overhaul of the homeowner’s allowance, the offloading of property off company books and privatization at the municipal level. Arguments in favor of investing in property (for own use or rental purposes) include the current favorable interest rates, moderate price level, the long-term rise in value and the "property pension" on retirement.

Property markets: Private residential property in 2030: Phoenix from the ashes?

The current slump on the property market has taken the shine off residential property as an investment compared with other investment vehicles. Given demographic and social changes, the central question for all property owners (and potential property owners) is how demand and prices will develop going forward.

Industrial Countries: Housing market adjustment might prove awkward

In many industrial countries house prices have shot up in recent years. Many markets are now overheated, with any adjustment possibly leading to economic problems via wealth effects.

International real estate markets: cycle, over-valuation or bubble?

The long period of low interest rates fueled steep increases in property prices in several countries. At the same time, other shortage indicators such as rents and vacancy rates point more towards excess supply. The housing markets in the UK, the USA and Spain therefore look overvalued.