Hong Kong: The recession is likely to deepen in Q1 2020

Hong Kong’s GDP declined again in Q4 2019, by -0.4% q/q from the previous quarter. In y/y terms, the -2.9% decline in Q4 2019 constitutes the largest quarterly slowdown since the global financial crisis. 

Coronavirus outbreak in China: Risks of supply chain disruption increase with time

The official PMIs for January released today do not yet reflect the magnitude of the economic concerns around the ongoing coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China. 

Italy: A strong setback at the end of the year

Preliminary GDP in Q4 came out significantly below expectations at -0.3% qoq. If this figure is confirmed, real growth in Italy will have stagnated in 2019.

France: The cost of division on economic growth

French GDP declined by -0.1% q/q in Q4 2019, below expectations.. Household consumption decelerated at 0.2% q/q in Q4 2019 compared with 0.4% q/q in Q3.

Brexit: A UK-EU trade deal is unlikely in 2020

A trade deal agreement with the EU by June 2020 seems unlikely, paving the way for a longer transition period.

Mexico: The great flattening

Q4 2019 Mexico’s GDP growth came in unchanged from Q3, which confirms our view that it has escaped technical recession, yet remaining flat for the second half of the year.

Getting high on low interest rates – How falling interest rates have driven savings higher

Our results show that the impact of interest rates on savings behavior is remarkably low. Demography and social policies have a stronger role to play here: precautionary and retirement provisions seem to take the lead in savings behavior in Europe.

German SMEs will face higher credit risk in 2020

Even though Germany narrowly avoided a technical recession in 2019[1], economic activity is still considerably weak as we expect GDP to grow by only +0.6% in 2020. In this environment, credit risk will most likely increase and be at top of mind for companies, lenders and investors.

Global Automotive 2020: Another lost year

Today’s financial release from Tesla Inc, the U.S. manufacturer of electric vehicles (EVs), is a perfect reminder of two key challenges facing the automotive industry in the short-term.