France: The cost of division on economic growth

French GDP declined by -0.1% q/q in Q4 2019, below expectations.. Household consumption decelerated at 0.2% q/q in Q4 2019 compared with 0.4% q/q in Q3.

Brexit: A UK-EU trade deal is unlikely in 2020

A trade deal agreement with the EU by June 2020 seems unlikely, paving the way for a longer transition period.

Mexico: The great flattening

Q4 2019 Mexico’s GDP growth came in unchanged from Q3, which confirms our view that it has escaped technical recession, yet remaining flat for the second half of the year.

Getting high on low interest rates – How falling interest rates have driven savings higher

Our results show that the impact of interest rates on savings behavior is remarkably low. Demography and social policies have a stronger role to play here: precautionary and retirement provisions seem to take the lead in savings behavior in Europe.

German SMEs will face higher credit risk in 2020

Even though Germany narrowly avoided a technical recession in 2019[1], economic activity is still considerably weak as we expect GDP to grow by only +0.6% in 2020. In this environment, credit risk will most likely increase and be at top of mind for companies, lenders and investors.

Global Automotive 2020: Another lost year

Today’s financial release from Tesla Inc, the U.S. manufacturer of electric vehicles (EVs), is a perfect reminder of two key challenges facing the automotive industry in the short-term.

Poland: Heading for another slowdown in 2020

The expected deceleration of Poland’s economic growth in 2019 has been confirmed. Real GDP expanded by +4.0% in the year as a whole, down from +5.1% in 2018 and slightly below the consensus forecast (+4.2%), according to preliminary estimates. 

ECB Strategy Review: Easy does it!

Today’s ECB meeting was uneventful when it comes to the short-term monetary policy outlook as all policy rates remained unchanged.

U.S.. energy: Black not gold

The U.S. energy sector, particularly shale oil, is highly leveraged, with an averge gearing close to 200% and net debt to Ebitda ratio of 2.8x for our independent/shale basket of quoted companies.