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Mar 11, 2020 | Specials

COVID-19: A timid “whatever it takes” from policy makers across Europe

This week, policy makers stepped up, as containment measures could cost between 0.7pp to -3.0pp of GDP growth depending on the country and the severity of the lockdowns. Next to steps aimed at keeping a lid on contagion and boosting the resilience of national health systems, fiscal and monetary policy measures, from Italy to the UK and Germany, to the ECB, have been –or will– be announced in an effort to cushion the sharp economic contraction that is in the cards for H1 2020.

 

Mar 10, 2020 | Specials

COVID-19: After a lost quarter, 75% of China is back

Chinese foreign trade growth in the first two months of 2020 was the lowest since 2016. The drop remains nonetheless small compared to the global financial crisis in 2009, when exports and imports slowed as much as -26.5% and -43.1% y/y in a month. In January and February 2020, Chinese exports and imports declined respectively by -17.2% and -4.0% y/y. The drop in exports was larger than expected and implies the weakest start of the year since 2016. The coming months could show further deterioration in China’s foreign trade, as containment measures across the world act as a major trade barrier.

Mar 09, 2020 | Specials

Low for longer oil prices: Who is at risk?

The negative growth impact is increasing with the time oil prices will remain below 45 USD/bbl In particular, oil-exporting economies are likely to suffer with Ecuador and Colombia expected to lose more than -1pp of real GDP growth for a fall in oil prices of 10 USD/bbl. Mexico, Russia and the UAE are expected to lose more than -0.5pp. The impact from lower oil prices for Saudi Arabia remains more contained, at -0.2pp for oil prices falling by 10 USD/bbl given that the positive impact on growth from higher export volumes and inventories will largely counterbalance negative effects from reduced incomes and some fiscal austerity.

Mar 06, 2020 | Specials

Women live longer – but men catch up

Women have a significantly longer life expectancy than men – but the lead has shrunk from 6.8 years to 4.8 years in the last forty years. Lifestyle changes are responsible for this: while men are becoming more health-conscious and avoid risks, women seem to be moving in the opposite direction. This development can be observed in all rich countries: The men are catching up.

Mar 05, 2020 | Specials

Covid-19 to cost USD320Bn of trade losses every quarter

After the U.S.-China trade feud slashed global trade growth to its slowest pace since 2009 last year (+1.2% in volume terms), we expect the Covid-19 outbreak to act as a major trade barrier in 2020.

Mar 04, 2020 | Specials

U.S. primary elections: Super Tuesday, and the winner is…

No matter who wins the Democrat nomination , or even the general election in November, it is certain that U.S. national debt will continue to grow

Mar 03, 2020 | Specials

Federal Reserve: Tylenol® monetary policy

 

The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by half a percentage point in an emergency move designed to bolster the U.S. economy amid risks posed by the Covid-19 outbreak.

 

Feb 27, 2020 | Specials

U.S.: Housing to remain strong

 

Solid fundamentals will continue to drive housing in 2020.  The housing market, which had been lagging through the first half of 2019, has enjoyed a recent rebound. 

 

Feb 20, 2020 | Specials

In or out? Measuring the Euro break-up risk

The “Allianz Euro Fragility Index” captures the systemic tail risk of a Eurozone breakup.

604 releases in total