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Sep 03, 2020

European consumers: Still firmly in the woods

Given the sharp setback in consumer spending in H1 2020, which far exceeded anything seen during the Great Financial Crisis as well as the Eurozone debt crisis, without a meaningful rebound in private consumption, economic recovery prospects will remain rather dim.

 

Sep 03, 2020

France, Germany, Italy: Good fiscal stimulus, bad trade deficits?

The unprecedented fiscal stimulus plans launched by European governments this summer (phase II to relaunch growth engines after phase I emergency relief programs) should help to boost economic growth by +2.4pp in France, +2pp in Germany and +0.7pp in Italy over 2021-22. 

 

Sep 03, 2020

Allianz Pulse 2020: Grim expectations

The second edition of the “Allianz Pulse”, a survey to check the mood in France, Germany and Italy, reveals deep pessimism: 82% of the French, 77% of the Italian and 49% of the German respondents consider the economic outlook as bad.

Jul 31, 2020

Q2 GDP Releases: The size of the Covid-19 crater

The Covid-19-related trough has been reached. The GDP figures for the second quarter confirmed the expected historic slump in economic activity in the Eurozone and the U.S. and the different recovery speeds across advanced economies.

Jul 30, 2020

Impact underwriting: Sustainable insurance as an opportunity for society and business

Impact underwriting can offer a ‘double dividend’, generating revenues in a growing market besides realizing positive externalities for society. In this context, we identify 9 fields of sustainable action for the insurance sector.

 

Jul 29, 2020

Major insolvencies: Close to 150 large companies went bust in Q2 2020

Our latest reporting of insolvencies of large companies - those with over EUR50mn of turnover - points to a surge in major insolvencies in Q2 2020 after a soft start of the year. Retail, services and energy were the most impacted sectors,  but automotive also stood out with a noticeable increase. What does this mean for companies? As the Covid-19 pandemic creates an insolvency time bomb, we expect a stronger risk of domino effects, notably on fragile providers along supply chains.

 

Jul 27, 2020

Covid-19 to increase firms’ liquidity needs to a record USD8tn as payment delays and inventories surge

Covid-19 entails longer payment delays and rising inventories among large corporates. Global firms’ liquidity needs, as measured by Working Capital Requirements (WCR) will increase by +5 days to 74 days in 2020 or USD8tn (+USD140bn). These liquidity needs are unfortunately not on the radar of policymakers, yet represent the equivalent of close to 10% of the global money supply. As a result, suppliers will continue to play the invisible bank to their clients, use more short-term credit lines from banks and look for additional funds from shareholders.


Jul 22, 2020

Bruised but not beaten, Europe’s textile industry is a perfect candidate for a greener and digital recovery

A Faustian bargain to limit short-term economic pain: Since the onset of Covid-19, policymakers have taken swift and unprecedented action.

Jul 16, 2020

Covid-19 and the business insolvency time bomb

Even as economies emerge from lockdowns, we expect the bulk of insolvencies is still to come, largely between the end of 2020 and H1 2021.

604 releases in total