Allianz Pulse 2021: Old beliefs die hard

Building back stronger? Only 27% of all respondents believe that the Covid-19 crisis will strengthen solidarity in the EU (Germany: 23%, France: 27%, and Italy 30%)

The Covid-19 crisis emphasizes wider fertility challenges

The Covid-19 pandemic not only caused millions of premature deaths, but it had also an impact on the number of births. In high-income countries the number of live births declined to record lows in 2020 as pregnancies were postponed. 

US yields: Where the music plays

After reflation, stagflation? While in the real economy the “Grand Reopening” party has just started, bond markets are seemingly positioned for a prolonged stagflationary scenario. Headline CPI reached 5% y/y in May but yields retreated.

G7 corporate tax deal: who is winning, who is losing?

Ahead of the G7 summit this weekend, we looked into who will win and who will lose from the recently proposed global minimum tax rate of at least 15% for companies. Though the eventual implementation of this agreement will take a long time because of ratification issues, the initiative represents a unique moment of global fiscal convergence. In the long run, the global minimum tax rate for MNEs could impact economies’ potential growth via different channels.

Grand reopening: new opportunities, old risks

Vaccine security will shape the grand reopening. While advanced economies delivered on immunization campaigns, vaccine hesitancy and second-generation vaccines are first-order priorities. In the meantime, under-vaccination in Asia and in Emerging Markets may cause desynchronized growth paths.

European corporates: It could take 5 years to offload Covid-19 debt

The flaw in the liquidity paradigm: Lessons from China

Velocity is a crucial but often overlooked dimension of money. Contemporary data from China show that the velocity of money in equity markets is highly unstable and pro-cyclical. Our observations cast a shadow on the alleged omnipotence of quantitative easing (QE).

French export barometer: 8 out of 10 companies aim to increase exports in 2021

For the 7^th edition of our Export Barometer survey, we asked more than 300 French exporters about their 2020 performance, their outlook for 2021 and the main risks and threats to their activity. The results reveal that strong winds of change lie ahead.

Semiconductors realpolitik : A reality check for Europe

European industrial autonomy in semiconductors is far out of reach. The recent shortage of semiconductors has highlighted one of Europe’s vulnerabilities, prompting the European Commission to set targets to bring the region’s share of global semiconductor production to 20% by 2030 and to ramp up chip production using the most advanced manufacturing technologies.