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Dec 15, 2021

Social Risk Index: Leave the door open for development

Even before Covid-19 upended our lifestyles, social and political risk were already on the rise in a number of countries and regions, largely due to the mismanagement of social protection. How has Covid-19 changed social risk? 

Dec 09, 2021

Global trade report – Battling out of supply-chain disruptions

Global supply-chain disruptions will remain high until H2 2022, on the back of renewed Covid-19 outbreaks globally, China’s continued zero-Covid policy and demand and logistic volatility during Chinese New Year. 

Dec 08, 2021

Jostle the colossal fossil: A path to the energy sector transition

The EU faces an implementation gap of six years in cutting greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector by 2030. Decarbonizing the energy sector is crucial to achieve the net-zero target as nearly three-quarters of the EU’s total greenhouse gas emissions originate from the production and use of energy, notably from fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas.

Dec 03, 2021

Monetary policy: Omicron management & beyond

In their December policy meetings, the US Federal Reserve and the ECB will be tested on their monetary policy stance amid signs of higher inflation and rising omicron-related uncertainty. Despite the higher stakes for credible forward guidance, with the possbility of a slightly more hawkish tone, we still expect the overall tightening cycle to be less aggressive than suggested by current market pricing.

Dec 01, 2021

Global FX Volatility: Still waters run deep

Global foreign exchange implied volatility has declined to a historically low level, led by advanced economies currencies (notably the EUR and the JPY). Central banks’ liquidity swaps have fostered such a decline by providing USD liquidity in times of stress. The presence of a CNY-factor in non-CNY denominated assets creates “hidden” opportunities as well as “hidden” risks.

Nov 25, 2021

Chinese capital markets: the panda in the room

China’s rapid economic development and dominant role in global trade has spurred a rapidly evolving financial system with an increasingly diverse and accessible capital market. 

Nov 22, 2021

US retail: A not so Black Friday for consumers

American consumers hunting for Black Friday bargains won’t find much in 2021 as supply remains tight, inventory low and discounts will apply to goods already more expensive. In fact, we expect consumers to pay between +5-17% more for toys, apparel, appliances, furniture, computers, sporting goods and TV sets compared to 2020.

Nov 18, 2021

Corporate credit: Life after policy support

Strong crisis support from central banks has triggered substantial inflows into corporate credit, keeping spreads anchored close to multi-year lows. But will a world without QE reverse the trend?

Nov 17, 2021

The middle-income trap: inequality across countries after Covid-19

In 2020, Covid-19 narrowed the prosperity gap between rich and poor countries as the former were at first the most affected. But over the medium and long run, its consequences could hit emerging markets harder. 

604 releases in total