Allianz Research

Powering ahead:
Global Wealth Report 2025

The Suez canal ship is not the only thing clogging global trade

On 23 March 2021, a 400-metre-long container ship ran aground in the Suez Canal in Egypt. We calculate that each day of immobilization could cost global trade USD6bn-10bn. The problem is that the Suez Canal blockage is the straw that breaks global trade’s back. Supply-chain disruptions since the beginning of the year (shortages of containers, semi-conductors, etc.) could cost real trade growth -1.4pp or roughly USD230bn of direct impact, on top of the immobilization in the Suez Canal.

The Hotel California effect – How the European hospitality sector is looking for people who stay

The Covid-19 pandemic cost the European accommodation industry EUR115bn in lost turnover in 2020 following stringent restrictions on leisure and business travel. A stronger summer season helped France and Germany see annual turnover slide by “only” -43% and -44%  compared to -53%, -61% and -64% for the UK, Italy and Spain, respectively.

China´s policy mix: "Proactive" and "prudent" in name, tightening in practice

With policymakers’ focus coming back to financial stability, Chinese stimulus will not be saving the global economy this time round. But expect monetary tightening through liquidity and regulation, rather than policy rate hikes, in 2021.