Allianz Research

Powering ahead:
Global Wealth Report 2025

ECB: Roaring reflation no reason to flinch

Despite the roaring return of inflation in H2 2021, the ECB should not flinch at next week’s policy meeting. In particular, it should refrain from taking an unneccesary bet on how the pandemic, the economy and yields (and in turn US monetary policy) will develop over the next quarter by pre-committing to a lower PEPP purchase pace. 

European SMEs: 7-15% at risk of insolvency in the next four years

In 2020, state support overcompensated for the Covid-19 shock, reducing the number of fragile SMEs by more than 8,000 in Germany, France and the UK. Yet, we find that 7%, 13% and 15% of SMEs  in the three countries are still at risk of insolvency in the next four years. 

Europe´s pent-up demand party is just getting started

The strong rebound in European Q2 GDP growth highlights that there is significant room to grow in the sectors most exposed to Covid-19 restrictions. We expect unleashed pent-up demand to provide a boost to these sectors through 2021, especially in Spain, France and Belgium.