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Financial tightening in advanced economies and slowing trade growth have created less favorable conditions for emerging market sovereigns, which have been amplified by the effects of the war in Ukraine on commodity prices.
Is the market underestimating the risk of a surprise outcome in the French elections? Unlike 2017 the delicate phase for investors lies between the first and second round. A significant repricing of the political risk premium could occur in case we see (i) a massive shift in second-round voting intentions against incumbent Emmanuel Macron and/or (ii) a risk of massive abstention.
Climate policy is the missing piece of the puzzle ahead of France’s Presidential elections. France has set ambitious targets to combat climate change, including reducing net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by -40% by 2030 compared to 1990.