Allianz Research

Powering ahead:
Global Wealth Report 2025

How to ease inflation? Non-tariff barriers to trade in the spotlight

A stronger US dollar will not be enough to rein in inflation in the US. Even as the appreciation of the USD will reduce inflation by -1.4pp in the next three months, and the US is less exposed to surging energy prices, we still expect inflation to remain well above 2% next year.

High yield: have the tourists left?

Since mid-April, high yield credit has entered a new decompressing regime characterized by a structural increase in risk premium, with market participants pricing in tightening financial conditions, still elevated geopolitical risk, uncertainty around the future inflation path, a deteriorating growth outlook and increased pressures on corporate balance sheets. 

Eurozone: watch credit conditions!

With the ECB hiking interest rates for the first time in over 11 years, could tightening financial conditions spark a credit crunch? While banks are in a better condition compared to the sovereign debt crisis more than a decade ago, they have already become more risk-averse.