Allianz Research

Allianz Global Wealth Report 2024:
Surprising relief

How polarization is shaping the economy (and what to do about it)

In 2024, societies are showing more signs of stability and social resilience, but the frequency and severity of civil unrest is increasing in several countries

What to watch I November 15, 2024

The cost of uncertainty in Germany, the finishing touch of the Chinese stimulus and all eyes on Brazil while this COP is in Baku

The geoeconomic playbook of global trade

A renewed but contained trade war could cost global trade growth 0.6pp in 2026, while a full-blown trade war would cost up to 2.4pps. In his second term as President, Donald Trump is likely to increase tariffs on Chinese and other strategic imports (to 25% for the former and to 5% for the rest of the world, excluding Mexico and Canada), which would decrease global trade by -0.6pp in 2026 as most measures would kick-in from the second half of 2025.