Allianz Research

Allianz Global Wealth Report 2024:
Surprising relief

Russia: External account: more a story of oil and less of sanctions

The strong decrease in Russia’s current account surplus in 2019 has been confirmed. It declined to USD71bn (an estimated +4.2% of GDP) in 2019, down from USD114bn (+6.8% of GDP) in 2018. Merchandise exports dropped by -6% or -USD25bn to USD418bn in 2019. 

China: The slowdown is managed, but not over

China’s GDP growth came in unchanged at +6.0% y/y in Q4 2019, in line with consensus expectations.

What to expect in 2020-21: Defending growth at all costs

We expect global growth to muddle through in the next two years. Monetary policies have to deal with a threefold series of disturbances, i.e. political risk, an external shock on trade and structural issues related to the ecological transition.