Allianz Research

Allianz Global Wealth Report 2024:
Surprising relief

Don’t judge the inflation book by its cover

Market-based long-term inflation expectations tend to concur. They are meaningful because capital markets participants are incentivized to price them as accurately as possible: more directly than other agents, they have skin in the game.

Coronavirus outbreak: USD26bn weekly in trade spillovers

Following our estimate of the economic impact on China, we look into the impact on the rest of the world: manufacturing and trade recessions are likely to continue, with a trade shock of USD26bn per week from the lockdowns in China (which should end on 9 February at the earliest), and global growth barely staying afloat at +2% in Q1 2020.

Hong Kong: The recession is likely to deepen in Q1 2020

Hong Kong’s GDP declined again in Q4 2019, by -0.4% q/q from the previous quarter. In y/y terms, the -2.9% decline in Q4 2019 constitutes the largest quarterly slowdown since the global financial crisis.