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Allianz Research

Allianz Global Wealth Report 2024:
Surprising relief

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Table of contents

Executive summary

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Financial assets: Surprising relief

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Liabilities: Expected restraint

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Real estate: Setback

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Distribution: Progress is in the eye of the beholder

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Appendices

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Our team

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Key contacts and links

General Inquiries
  

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Economic Research
  

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Investor Relations
  

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Press
  

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COVID-19: After a lost quarter, 75% of China is back

Chinese foreign trade growth in the first two months of 2020 was the lowest since 2016. The drop remains nonetheless small compared to the global financial crisis in 2009, when exports and imports slowed as much as -26.5% and -43.1% y/y in a month. In January and February 2020, Chinese exports and imports declined respectively by -17.2% and -4.0% y/y. The drop in exports was larger than expected and implies the weakest start of the year since 2016. The coming months could show further deterioration in China’s foreign trade, as containment measures across the world act as a major trade barrier.

Low for longer oil prices: Who is at risk?

The negative growth impact is increasing with the time oil prices will remain below 45 USD/bbl In particular, oil-exporting economies are likely to suffer with Ecuador and Colombia expected to lose more than -1pp of real GDP growth for a fall in oil prices of 10 USD/bbl. Mexico, Russia and the UAE are expected to lose more than -0.5pp. The impact from lower oil prices for Saudi Arabia remains more contained, at -0.2pp for oil prices falling by 10 USD/bbl given that the positive impact on growth from higher export volumes and inventories will largely counterbalance negative effects from reduced incomes and some fiscal austerity.

Women live longer – but men catch up

Women have a significantly longer life expectancy than men – but the lead has shrunk from 6.8 years to 4.8 years in the last forty years. Lifestyle changes are responsible for this: while men are becoming more health-conscious and avoid risks, women seem to be moving in the opposite direction. This development can be observed in all rich countries: The men are catching up.

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