Allianz Research

Allianz Global Wealth Report 2024:
Surprising relief

Global trade: COVID-19 losses equivalent to a return of 1994 tariffs

Global trade could remain below 90% of its pre-crisis level even after lockdowns are lifted and only recover gradually in H2 2020. We estimate that lockdowns and the uncoordinated deconfinement could cost merchandise trade USD2.4tn, the same as if all countries hiked their tariffs to 17%,  i.e. close to levels last seen in 1994.

Emerging Markets: Capital outflows bottomed out but beware of the weak spots

Capital outflows from Emerging Markets (EMs) bottomed out in March but could increase again should renewed trade tensions continue. Total portfolio outflows from EMs moderated to an estimated -USD18bn in April from the record outflow of -USD88bn in March.

ECB: Show and tell

Today’s policy announcements were geared in particular towards easing liquidity conditions but left the job unfinished with regard to boosting the ECB’s ability to backstop Eurozone debt markets.