Allianz Research

Allianz Global Wealth Report 2024:
Surprising relief

Retail in the U.S.: Department store bankruptcies are only the tip of the iceberg

The Covid-19 outbreak is sending the U.S. economy into an unprecedented recession: Our central scenario anticipates a -2.7% contraction of economic activity for the year 2020, taking into account a two-month lockdown period and a U-shaped recovery starting in Q3. The impact of the crisis on the U.S. retail industry is also unprecedented and will have lasting consequences on all segments. However, we find a clear divide between food retail, which is resilient, and discretionary retail, which is cyclical, at least for the eighteen months to come.

Automotive in Europe: -30% in 2020, in spite of active googling for new cars

In Europe, both new car registrations and the business climate slumped in April. High frequency indicators based on Google trends now point to a renewed interest in cars but with the exception of Germany, that won’t be enough to drive a strong revival in car purchases before Q3.

Germany: Q1 GDP drop only the tip of the iceberg

The Covid-19 crisis has pulled the rug out from under the feet of the German economy. According to the Federal Statistical Office's flash estimate, the GDP setback in Q1 2020 amounts to a hefty -2.2% Q/Q - the sharpest rate of decline since the height of the great financial crisis (Q1 2009).