Allianz Research

Allianz Global Wealth Report 2024:
Surprising relief

Inflation: Back to the 1970s?

The immediate impact of the Covid-19 shock on inflation has been decidedly deflationary, but in light of the brewing cocktail of post-pandemic economic trends, the probability of an inflationary overshoot has also risen. What would it take for a scenario of persistently high inflation (probability: 15%) to materialize?

U.S. elections - We have a winner: Debt

The U.S. elections will spark a period of high uncertainty and market volatility until the end of the year. It could take one to two months after 03 November to finalize the results due to the record high use of mail-in ballots amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

Living on with a Covid-19 hum

Stop-and-go containment measures confirm a return to normal in 2022. After strong post-lockdown catch-up effects, we expect the recovery to slow in Q4 2020 and Q1 2021 as distancing measures tighten again and ongoing job shedding keeps spend-ing and investment in check.