Allianz Research

Allianz Global Wealth Report 2024:
Surprising relief

Global Trade: Battling out of demand and price shocks

The invasion of Ukraine and renewed Covid-19 outbreaks in China are hitting global trade with a double whammy in 2022: lower volumes and higher prices. 

Russian dolls: unwrapping corporate (commodity) dependencies

Global trade exposure to the Russian and Ukrainian economies is limited and has been declining over the past year, which will restrict the direct impact of the war to certain countries (eg. Belarus, Moldova, Poland, Turkey) and sectors (oil & gas, fertilizers, metals, agrifood). 

Economic Outlook: Energy, trade and financial shockwaves

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought back significant headwinds to the global economic recovery and raised wider geopolitical risks. We have cut our global growth forecast to +3.3% in 2022 and +2.8% in 2023, revised on the downside by -0.8pp and -0.4pp respectively.