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Feb 07, 2020 | Specials

Don’t judge the inflation book by its cover

Market-based long-term inflation expectations tend to concur. They are meaningful because capital markets participants are incentivized to price them as accurately as possible: more directly than other agents, they have skin in the game.

Feb 07, 2020 | Specials

Coronavirus outbreak: USD26bn weekly in trade spillovers

Following our estimate of the economic impact on China, we look into the impact on the rest of the world: manufacturing and trade recessions are likely to continue, with a trade shock of USD26bn per week from the lockdowns in China (which should end on 9 February at the earliest), and global growth barely staying afloat at +2% in Q1 2020.

Feb 03, 2020 | Specials

Hong Kong: The recession is likely to deepen in Q1 2020

Hong Kong’s GDP declined again in Q4 2019, by -0.4% q/q from the previous quarter. In y/y terms, the -2.9% decline in Q4 2019 constitutes the largest quarterly slowdown since the global financial crisis. 

Jan 31, 2020 | Specials

Coronavirus outbreak in China: Risks of supply chain disruption increase with time

The official PMIs for January released today do not yet reflect the magnitude of the economic concerns around the ongoing coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China. 

Jan 31, 2020 | Specials

Italy: A strong setback at the end of the year

Preliminary GDP in Q4 came out significantly below expectations at -0.3% qoq. If this figure is confirmed, real growth in Italy will have stagnated in 2019.

Jan 31, 2020 | Specials

France: The cost of division on economic growth

French GDP declined by -0.1% q/q in Q4 2019, below expectations.. Household consumption decelerated at 0.2% q/q in Q4 2019 compared with 0.4% q/q in Q3.

Jan 30, 2020 | Specials

Brexit: A UK-EU trade deal is unlikely in 2020

A trade deal agreement with the EU by June 2020 seems unlikely, paving the way for a longer transition period.

Jan 30, 2020 | Specials

Mexico: The great flattening

Q4 2019 Mexico’s GDP growth came in unchanged from Q3, which confirms our view that it has escaped technical recession, yet remaining flat for the second half of the year.

Jan 29, 2020 | Specials

Getting high on low interest rates – How falling interest rates have driven savings higher

Our results show that the impact of interest rates on savings behavior is remarkably low. Demography and social policies have a stronger role to play here: precautionary and retirement provisions seem to take the lead in savings behavior in Europe.

Jan 29, 2020 | Specials

German SMEs will face higher credit risk in 2020

Even though Germany narrowly avoided a technical recession in 2019[1], economic activity is still considerably weak as we expect GDP to grow by only +0.6% in 2020. In this environment, credit risk will most likely increase and be at top of mind for companies, lenders and investors.

604 releases in total