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Jul 27, 2020

Covid-19 to increase firms’ liquidity needs to a record USD8tn as payment delays and inventories surge

Covid-19 entails longer payment delays and rising inventories among large corporates. Global firms’ liquidity needs, as measured by Working Capital Requirements (WCR) will increase by +5 days to 74 days in 2020 or USD8tn (+USD140bn). These liquidity needs are unfortunately not on the radar of policymakers, yet represent the equivalent of close to 10% of the global money supply. As a result, suppliers will continue to play the invisible bank to their clients, use more short-term credit lines from banks and look for additional funds from shareholders.


Jul 22, 2020

Bruised but not beaten, Europe’s textile industry is a perfect candidate for a greener and digital recovery

A Faustian bargain to limit short-term economic pain: Since the onset of Covid-19, policymakers have taken swift and unprecedented action.

Jul 16, 2020

Covid-19 and the business insolvency time bomb

Even as economies emerge from lockdowns, we expect the bulk of insolvencies is still to come, largely between the end of 2020 and H1 2021.

Jul 16, 2020

European Banks: Could EUR300bn of additional NPLS crunch the recovery?

A Faustian bargain to limit short-term economic pain: Since the onset of Covid-19, policymakers have taken swift and unprecedented action.

Jul 15, 2020

COVID-19: Contagion risks also apply to markets

The Covid-19 crisis caused one the most severe financial market turmoil of the last hundred years. A historic slump was followed by a historic rally.

Jul 09, 2020

Coping with Covid-19 in different ways

The light and targeted lockdowns to fight the second wave of Covid-19 infections will constrain the pace of recovery. We expect global GDP to contract by -4.7% in 2020, followed by growth of +4.8% in 2021. 

Jul 08, 2020

Brexit: Trade tricks won´t be enough

The UK intends to lower its global import tariff by -2.2pp to 2.8% post its EU exit, the second lowest tariff among G-20 countries after Australia. These new tariffs will apply to imported goods from countries with which the UK will not have a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on 01 January 2021.

 

Jul 03, 2020

Chinese banks put to the test of RMB8tn of Covid19 problematic loans

In China, financial and monetary conditions are clearly easing, as measured by our credit impulse index: as of May 2020, it stood at 6.0pp, up from 1.9pp at the end of 2019. However, the PBOC’s stance appears to be much more prudent compared to other major economies.

Jul 01, 2020

Allianz Global Insurance Report 2020: Skyfall

The global insurance industry entered 2020 in good shape: In 2019, premiums increased by 4.4%, the strongest growth in four years. 2020 will be different: Premium income is expected to shrink by 4.7% in Western Europe and by 3.8% globally – compared with the pre-Covid-19 trend, around EUR 360bn in premiums will have gone missing

Jun 30, 2020

Money is power: Can a country’s culture increase the risk of payment defaults?

The Covid-19 crisis is morphing into a payment crisis as companies tend to protect their working capital by paying their suppliers late. Defaults and insolvencies loom ahead. Companies need to understand structural payment patterns to help them triage bad payers from the good ones in finding their way back to growth.

605 releases in total