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France vs Germany: No #Euro2020 final but a tie against Covid-19

During the UEFA EURO 2020 opening game, France arguably dominated its archrival Germany. While both teams have since exited the tournament, we find a welcome tie between the EU’s two largest economies when it comes to weathering the Covid-19 crisis, judging by GDP developments, labor market performance, debt toll and policy support. 

This is (Latin) America: The unequal cost of living

It is too soon to tell the long-term effects of the Covid-19 crisis on inequality in Latin America, but income and labor markets already seem to be Patient Zero. 

China´s corporate debt: Triaging in progress

With ~18% of global outstanding debt currently yielding in negative territory, investors are increasingly looking for yield-enhancing opportunities in higher risk Emerging Market assets. 

Emerging Markets debt relief

The Covid-19 pandemic and related global economic crisis triggered an unprecedented shift in public debt sustainability in the developing world. 

Allianz Pulse 2021: Old beliefs die hard

Building back stronger? Only 27% of all respondents believe that the Covid-19 crisis will strengthen solidarity in the EU (Germany: 23%, France: 27%, and Italy 30%)

The Covid-19 crisis emphasizes wider fertility challenges

The Covid-19 pandemic not only caused millions of premature deaths, but it had also an impact on the number of births. In high-income countries the number of live births declined to record lows in 2020 as pregnancies were postponed. 

US yields: Where the music plays

After reflation, stagflation? While in the real economy the “Grand Reopening” party has just started, bond markets are seemingly positioned for a prolonged stagflationary scenario. Headline CPI reached 5% y/y in May but yields retreated.

G7 corporate tax deal: who is winning, who is losing?

Ahead of the G7 summit this weekend, we looked into who will win and who will lose from the recently proposed global minimum tax rate of at least 15% for companies. Though the eventual implementation of this agreement will take a long time because of ratification issues, the initiative represents a unique moment of global fiscal convergence. In the long run, the global minimum tax rate for MNEs could impact economies’ potential growth via different channels.

Grand reopening: new opportunities, old risks

Vaccine security will shape the grand reopening. While advanced economies delivered on immunization campaigns, vaccine hesitancy and second-generation vaccines are first-order priorities. In the meantime, under-vaccination in Asia and in Emerging Markets may cause desynchronized growth paths.

European corporates: It could take 5 years to offload Covid-19 debt