Ghana

Sovereign financing risks are decreasing but confidence will not be fully restored until restructuring is complete with all creditors. In October 2025, a new bilateral deal with the UK was agreed following previous agreements with France and China, while Eurobond repayments also restarted. Bondholders got upfront payments in exchange for a nominal haircut. Challenges remain around the USD768mn owed to African Export-Import Bank. Central-government and guaranteed debt was 70.3% of GDP in 2025 and is likely to reach 59% in 2026, while 40% of total debt is issued in domestic currency.   

Ghana’s public debt fell from USD69.77bn in December 2024 to USD58.94bn by June 2025, a -16% decline over six months. This comes as the West African nation repays a USD700mn in Eurobond debt as part of a sweeping debt restructuring program that has helped cut the country’s public debt ratio to 43.8%. Stress in the banking sector is still present, with high non-performing loans at 19.5% as of October 2025, which keeps corporate refinancing and insolvency risks significant. 

The outlook for Ghana’s fiscal stance improved in 2025 with an estimated positive primary balance at 1.5% of GDP, while the overall balance remained negative at -2.8% in 2025. It is set to improve in 2026 to -1.9%, following the fiscal slippages during the 2024 Presidential election. External buffers strengthened due to strong commodity export prices. Gross international reserves reached USD11.12bn by end-June 2025 (4.8 months of imports), up from USD8.98bn at end-2024. Ghana’s current account reached a record high in Q1 2025, with an estimated balance of 1.8% of GDP in 2025, and this is projected to continue in 2026. The build-up was also felt in FX reserves, which stood at 2.3 months of imports at the end of 2024 and increased to 4.8 months by end-2025. However, the downside risks for 2026–27 include a potential reversal in gold/cocoa prices, as well as renewed FX pressure if global liquidity tightens. 

The cedi was among the world’s best performing currencies in 2025, strengthening around 27% against the USD and 11% against the euro. Shifts highlight Ghana’s currency resilience in late 2025, though risks remain from inflationary pressures and external shocks. 

The peaceful transfer of power in 2025 should be underlined as a regional success story, after the wave of coups in Western Africa started in 2020. However, the administration’s reform agenda has clear winners and losers, raising the likelihood of periodic protests.  

Ghana’s performance in terms of civil liberties, rights and political stability exceeds that of most African peers. Independent poll observers generally deem general elections in Ghana to be free and fair. Ghana’s strong record of accomplishment in democracy and rule of law is expected to prevent any serious social unrest, although the post-pandemic rises in unemployment and poverty, along with rising food and energy prices, have spurred discontent in recent years.  

The new administration has focused on resource governance to drive short-term growth. In terms of reforms to boost non-commodity sectors, the new administration has yet to deliver any economic plan besides promises of job creation. Following the recently ratified African Continental Free Trade Agreement, Ghanian companies could boost their growth by aiming to serve markets across Africa, as well as the EU and the UK, given the favorable trade arrangement in place between the partners. Finally, given strong commercial ties with Gulf countries, especially via gold exports to the UAE, Ghana could benefit by opening its economy and use Gulf states’ high liquidity as a catalyst for strategic industry and agricultural investment.