Allianz Global Wealth Report 2026

Trade war 3.0: A new, lasting tariff wall

With Section 122's flat 10% tariff expiring on 24 July, the switch to Section 301 and Section 338 tariffs will send the US average import tariff back above 2025's IEEPA-era level to 12.4%, up from a May low of 7.7%. 

Cash at risk: Inventories are driving a new cycle of working capital strain

The global cash conversion cycle (CCC) rose again in 2025 — and it is stuck at a high plateau.

Super El Niño risk: more inflation in Asia, oversupply in Latin America yet little disruption in financial markets

The emerging 2026-27 El Niño has the potential to become the strongest climate event in more than a decade.