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We expect global growth to muddle through in the next two years. Monetary policies have to deal with a threefold series of disturbances, i.e. political risk, an external shock on trade and structural issues related to the ecological transition.
Tsai Ing-wen was reelected as president of Taiwan on Saturday 11 January in a landslide victory against runner-up Han Kuo-yu. Tsai’s party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), also managed to keep its majority in the Legislative Yuan (albeit with a smaller margin).
At a global level, the upward trend in business insolvencies continued in 2019 (+9% y/y), mainly due to the prolonged surge in China (+20%) and, to a lesser extent, a trend reversal in Western Europe (+2%) and North America (+3%).