Allianz Global Wealth Report 2026

Coronavirus outbreak: USD26bn weekly in trade spillovers

Following our estimate of the economic impact on China, we look into the impact on the rest of the world: manufacturing and trade recessions are likely to continue, with a trade shock of USD26bn per week from the lockdowns in China (which should end on 9 February at the earliest), and global growth barely staying afloat at +2% in Q1 2020.

Hong Kong: The recession is likely to deepen in Q1 2020

Hong Kong’s GDP declined again in Q4 2019, by -0.4% q/q from the previous quarter. In y/y terms, the -2.9% decline in Q4 2019 constitutes the largest quarterly slowdown since the global financial crisis. 

Coronavirus outbreak in China: Risks of supply chain disruption increase with time

The official PMIs for January released today do not yet reflect the magnitude of the economic concerns around the ongoing coronavirus 2019-nCoV outbreak in China.