Nine months into the war, with a volatile recovery underway, Hormuz exposure and war impact continues to decide who loses most in the GCC. GDP is set to contract by -4.0% in 2026.
The gap between net-zero ambitions and reality is narrowing but remains substantial ahead of COP31: While most countries have moved closer to their benchmarks, the world as a whole will not reach carbon neutrality until 2064.
The Democrats achieved a full sweep of Congress and won a majority of governorships in the midterm elections. Results are not definitive at this stage, but the Democrats have secured a decisive majority in both the House and the Senate.
Global financial stability is shifting from foreign private capital toward US public-sector backstops, as declining foreign demand for Treasuries and growing market fragmentation increase volatility, weaken the dollar and elevate the role of domestic bonds and gold.
Our Global Insolvency Index looks set to increase by +5% this year (broadly in line with our previous estimate), down from +6% in 2025 and +10% in 2024, leaving it 21% above its pre-pandemic average.
Private credit losses stay contained, but each hike costs more than the last. After the 25bps hike the Fed delivered in September, the first since July 2023, our baseline assumes three more, taking the terminal range to 4.50%-4.75%.
