Sep 09, 2022

Rising political risks have exacerbated an already challenging economic outlook for Italy: Ahead of the snap elections on 25 September, a right-wing coalition comprising the Brothers of Italy, Lega and Forza Italia is currently leading the polls and is likely to secure the parliamentary majority.

Sep 07, 2022

Despite exceeding 2019 levels by 30% in Europe and 50% in the US as of Q2 2022, cash buffers are decreasing as most firms in both the US and Europe have been burning cash in 2022. Countries, sectors and firms now face different challenges. The energy crisis could be a major blow in Europe for energy-intensive sectors (Power, Paper, Metals, Railways, Chemicals etc.) while the strong dollar could harm exporting sectors in the US.

Sep 01, 2022

The gas crisis threatens to morph into “Gasmageddon”: Energy poverty is an old scourge in the EU, even before today’s energy crisis began. The situation has worsened significantly this year as the invasion of Ukraine has caused gas prices to explode to levels not seen in well over a decade. A dual-pricing scheme could address the shortcomings of the counter-measures implemented so far.

Aug 30, 2022

The war in Ukraine underscores that scaling up investment in climate-smart infrastructure is necessary to ensure energy and food security as we transition to a lower-carbon future.

Jul 28, 2022

A stronger US dollar will not be enough to rein in inflation in the US. Even as the appreciation of the USD will reduce inflation by -1.4pp in the next three months, and the US is less exposed to surging energy prices, we still expect inflation to remain well above 2% next year.

Jul 26, 2022

Since mid-April, high yield credit has entered a new decompressing regime characterized by a structural increase in risk premium, with market participants pricing in tightening financial conditions, still elevated geopolitical risk, uncertainty around the future inflation path, a deteriorating growth outlook and increased pressures on corporate balance sheets.