Feb 28, 2023

Biodiversity loss is both a risk and an opportunity for the financial sector. Financial institutions may face financial, market, reputational and legal risks when they invest in economic activities that cause adverse effects on biodiversity or are highly dependent on natural capital.

Feb 23, 2023

Despite Western sanctions, the Russian economy held up much better than expected: real GDP contracted by just -2.1% last year. However, the outlook is challenging. We expect a further contraction of -1% this year.

Feb 21, 2023

Over the last decades, and especially since the global financial crisis (GFC), structural factors have caused a secular decline of inflation. Globalization, digitalization and aging populations in advanced economies have been strong disinflationary forces.

Feb 17, 2023

After resilient performance in the first half of 2022, global trade deteriorated in the second half of the year and is likely to remain muted in 2023. However, China’s reopening reduces the risk of sudden stops in global supply chains, while moderately supporting global demand.

Feb 14, 2023

2022 marked the end of the era of negative interest rates. But the turnaround has not yet reached all parts of the economy. While interest rates for new deposits and loans to households followed the lead of central banks – though at a great distance – the overall impact on outstanding amounts is hardly detectable: In the Eurozone, interest rates on deposits increased by 4bps in 2022 over 2021, but continued to decline on loans, albeit by a meagre 3bps.

Feb 09, 2023

The outlook for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has slightly improved in recent weeks due to diminishing headwinds from lower-than-expected energy prices. Nonetheless, growth in the CEE-4 (Poland, Czechia, Romania, Hungary) remains subdued overall as the impact of continued high inflation, increased interest rates, weaker external demand and lower business confidence will take full effect this year.