Meanwhile, however, the US economy is increasingly heading for full employment. The indications in the October jobs report that wage growth is firming up should be confirmed unambiguously in the coming quarters. However, with productivity growth to date still very moderate, the scale of the wage increases is likely to be limited. The solid labor market data bolster our expectation that the Fed will start raising key rates in December. The pace of monetary policy normalization is likely to be measured, particularly if the external backdrop remains difficult.