Unemployment to drop further without accelerated wage growth?

The core inflation rate of the price index for personal consumption expenditures remained subdued in the third quarter of this year at 1.3%.

US consumers: From big spender to big saver

The US savings rate could rise as high as 6% in the wake of the crisis, according to a recent study by Allianz Group Economic Research. The study examines how the recent dramatic reduction in household wealth is affecting consumption and savings behavior.

Impact of US real estate crisis and financial market turbulence on the economy

All in all the financial turmoil triggered by the US housing crisis will not leave the European economy completely unscathed but the impact will be largely confined to those countries where the economic and debt picture most resembles that of the US. This means Spain and, to a lesser extent, the UK. For the euro area we now expect growth of 2.1 % in 2008 (previously 2.2 %). Our 2008 forecast for Germany remains unchanged (2.5 %).

Has Europe moved out of the American economic slipstream?

A much-worked piece of economic wisdom says: “If the United States sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold”. This implies that even a slight economic setback in the US has distinctly negative fallout on business elsewhere. Of late correlation between the business cycles in the USA and the euro area has been lower than was the case in the past. What are the causes? Will this trend continue?

USA: The transition from Alan Greenspan to Ben S. Bernanke at the Fed

At the end of January Alan Greenspan ends 18 years as Fed chairman, the second longest term in office. It was an extremely eventful epoch, marked by a host of crises. The Fed strategy developed by Greenspan as we know it today can be described as a triad of transparency, activist stabilization policy and gradualism in the setting of key rates. However, the fundamental problems, which had led to the 2001 recession, have not been solved. They still exist, payment day has merely been deferred.

USA: Bush administration: Far-reaching reform plans and higher debt

The Bush administration has set itself ambitious targets for pension and tax reform in its second term of office. But the money needed to fund these reforms sits oddly with the aim of halving the deficit.

George W. Bush or John F. Kerry: the deficits remain

The plans announced by the two contenders for the US presidency, George W. Bush und John F. Kerry, to halve the budget deficit are unrealistic. Implementation of the detailed plans of both candidates would mean a further rise in the deficits.

America’s lost peace dividend: some macroeconomic implications

Over the 1990s the industrial economies enjoyed a period of remarkable peace and macroeconomic stability. In reaction to the end of the Cold War most of these countries significantly reduced their expenditures on national security. For the US almost half of the cyclically-adjusted improvement in the federal budget balance during this period can be traced directly back to reduced expenditure in this category.

US budget: Deep-red outlook

In the medium term the USA faces budget deficits amounting to 3 % of gross domestic product. On the basis of realistic assumptions and given the tasks ahead, the Bush administration’s pledge to halve the deficit is unrealistic.