Allianz Euro Monitor 2014

The Allianz Euro Monitor aims to expose existing and emerging imbalances in order to flag up the aberrations of the kind that led to the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area in a timely fashion. The results for 2014 show that further progress has been made in moving towards balanced growth. Dr. Michael Heise, chief economist of Allianz SE, on the results of this year’s report: "The Euro Monitor indicators show that the member states have become more economically stable again and that imbalances have been reduced, lowering the risk of contagion. Key structural improvements have been made that will see the eurozone return to a permanently higher growth path. But the positive trend will only continue if the member states continue to forge ahead with their reforms."

The Euro Monitor calculates an indicator that can serve as an early-warning signal if the basis for growth in the economies analyzed starts to deteriorate and as an indicator of financial stress. The Euro Monitor does not, however, provide any information on how strong growth is expected to be in individual countries. Looking at the EMU countries as a whole, the overall indicator clambered back to roughly the 2008 level in 2014, reaching 6.4 points. Despite this marked improvement, the stability readings are still unsatisfactory. Our first-time comparison with the US also yields encouraging results, with the eurozone slightly outperforming the economy often deemed to be the "measure of all things".

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