Signs continue to point to upswing

On the economic front a humming domestic economy was the hallmark of 2016. The external side provided only a limited boost. At 2.5%, German exports expanded more strongly than world trade, which more or less stagnated on average last year. However, the picture changed towards the end of 2016. Demand from abroad rose strongly. This is a positive portent for this year. We expect to see economic growth of 1.7% in 2017 after 1.9% last year.

For the third year running changes in stocks made a negative contribution to real GDP (-0.4 percentage points). Economic reasons for this are difficult to find. Stripping out stock changes, economic growth last year would have been 2.3%. Among the expenditure components of gross domestic product, the 4.2% increase in real government consumption stands out. This is the highest rate of increase since 1992. Even in the economic crisis years 2008/2009 with their various stimulus packages the rates of increase in government spending were not quite so high. The additional outlays for refugees doubtless played a role in the steep rise but are unlikely to be the sole reason. Against the backdrop of the hefty increase in government outlays, it is striking that the public sector as a whole generated a surplus of EUR 19.2bn. But this shows how abundantly state revenues flowed on the back of a healthy domestic economy.

We expect the economic picture to change slightly in 2017. Both government and private consumption will see lower real increases than in 2016, whereas exports will provide a somewhat stronger boost. The construction sector boom will continue in 2017. On the labor market, ongoing substantial rises in the number of people in work will keep a lid on unemployment.


Dr. Rolf Schneider

Allianz SE
Phone: +49 69 24431 5790

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