Risks in the wings

One year ago, in the midst of the crisis, some professional forecasters suggested that the guild abstain from growth forecasts as economic developments were deemed too unpredictable. Now, at the beginning of 2010, any such qualms have been set aside. The world economy has experienced a relatively synchronized recovery since the middle of 2009, with the exception of some smaller countries. Purchasing manager indices in most countries are substantially above the 50 point level, signaling solid economic expansion.

Are we therefore already in a stable and self-sustained economic recovery? The answer is no. There still exist at least two risks scenarios with a significant probability:

- a double-dip recession
- a marked pickup in global inflation


Dr. Michael Heise

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