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Feb 01, 2019 | Economic Insight

Brexit: The final countdown may take longer

We continue to expect a last-minute agreement which would allow avoiding a disorderly Brexit on March 29th, 2019. This could take the form of (i) ratification of a revised Brexit deal by the UK Parliament on February 14th or slightly later; (ii) an extension of Article 50 to July or December 2019.

Dec 06, 2018 | Economic Insight

COP24: Stranded assets

As the parties to COP 24 gather in Katowice to agree on implementing the Paris agreement, there could be a step up towards the reality of assets having to leave the market and others coming to displace them. 

Nov 12, 2018 | Economic Insight

European Sovereign Insurance Mechanism

The eurozone remains vulnerable to another bond-market breakdown. It needs new and stronger safeguards – if it wants to avoid again to (mis-)use monetary policy as the only effective defense.

Oct 15, 2018 | Economic Insight

Brexit: A blind date better than a bad break up

Ongoing discussions about the details of the divorce agreement combined with a polarized political landscape in the UK have increased the likelihood of a ‘No deal’ and resulted in higher uncertainty. 

16.01.2018

10 Ideas On How France and Germany Could Strengthen Europe

Between a pro-European government in France and early discussions of a Große Koalition in Germany, there is political momentum on both sides of the Rhine for a stronger Europe. Building on the principle of subsidiarity, and focusing on cost-effective institutional breakthroughs, France and Germany could drive the European project further with ten initiatives in five reform areas.

08.12.2017

Seven Economic Misconceptions about France and Germany

The two biggest economies in Europe have been the subject of various wrong analyses and common-knowledge truisms. This report sets out to refute seven such misconceptions. These are: a higher French birth means potential growth is higher than in Germany; labor productivity is higher in France than in Germany because of France’s higher number of unemployed; Fiscal austerity is stronger in Germany than in France; France lost the competitiveness battle to Germany; German SMEs are performing better than French ones; France is Germany's main trading partner; and Because it grows faster, Germany should invest more than France.

22.12.2016

Outlook 2017: Optimism despite multiple risks

Elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands, the move of the US President-elect Donald Trump into the Oval Office, the start of Brexit negotiations – given the elevated uncertainty hanging over political and economic developments next year, there is really only one thing that is certain: 2017 will be an eventful and interesting year.

27.10.2016

Italy's referendum: Short-term outlook and long-term implications

On December 4th, Italians will vote on a constitutional reform package, the most important element of which is a move to a unicameral parliamentary system.

24.06.2016

Britain votes to leave: A leap in the dark

This is not a good day for Europe. Brexit is not an event, it is a process. The repercussions of yesterday’s vote will be felt not only in the UK but across Europe for years to come.

10 releases in total