European Sovereign Insurance Mechanism

The eurozone remains vulnerable to another bond-market breakdown. It needs new and stronger safeguards – if it wants to avoid again to (mis-)use monetary policy as the only effective defense.

US mid-term elections: Six things companies should know

The midterm elections and the resulting Democratically controlled House does not change our US economic outlook. GDP is still expected to grow by 2.9% in 2018, and 2.5% in 2019. However, businesses could be affected by policy shifts in six areas: infrastructure spending, regulation, taxes, public budget, trade and immigration

The ECB´s reinvestment policy:Issues and options

The ECB has committed itself to reinvesting the principal from maturing securities purchased under the Asset Purchase Program (APP) since 2014. But with monthly net purchases expected to end after an almost four-year run come January, the reinvestment policy will now take center stage in determining financial conditions in the eurozone until at least September 2019 when we expect the ECB to implement its first timid rate hike. 

Turkey: Hard landing on the horizon

Turkey’s currency crisis became full-fledged in August amid an ongoing withdrawal of global liquidity stemming from continued monetary tightening in the U.S. as well as lasting economic policy mistakes. 

Brexit: A blind date better than a bad break up

Ongoing discussions about the details of the divorce agreement combined with a polarized political landscape in the UK have increased the likelihood of a ‘No deal’ and resulted in higher uncertainty. 

Economic Insight: Banking deregulation in the US to boost growth - and risk

Deregulation has been firmly on Trump’s agenda, with a recent bill easing rules for banks by watering down prudential standards and undoing some elements of the so-called Dodd-Frank law. However, while greater financial liberalization can contribute to higher long term growth, it can also encourage greater risk taking. 

Economic Insight: Italy: Stress is here to stay

88 days after the Italian parliamentary election on March 4, and after one failed attempt to form a governing coalition that triggered an episode of exceptional financial market stress, the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Lega parties sealed their governing alliance.

Economic Insight: Oil - Beyond geopolitics?

Oil price strength in Q2 18 has been driven by geopolitics, in particular heightened tension in Syria and in the Middle East, and subsequently the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal.

Economic Insight: German growth outlook remains favorable

The German economy got off to a weak start in 2018, with growth halving to 0.3% in the first quarter of this year compared with the final quarter of 2017, when real GDP expanded by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter.